About Skilled Wallets
Built to separate skill from luck
Skilled Wallets was created for one reason: public Polymarket leaderboards tell you who made money, not who is worth copying. We built the pipeline that answers the second question — with peer-reviewed research on prediction markets as its foundation.
Mission and Values
Our mission
Give retail prediction-market traders the same quality of trader-selection research that professional funds apply to markets: rigorous metrics, aggressive filtering of noise, and full transparency about what each number means and when it cannot be computed.
Our values
The principles behind every metric and every line of the pipeline.
Research first
Metrics like Excess Hit Rate and the Sharpe/Sortino/Calmar analogs come from published academic work on prediction markets, not from marketing intuition.
Honest data
When a metric cannot be computed we show "no data" — never a fake zero. A missing number is information too.
Risk awareness
Raw profit is a poor signal. Everything we rank is adjusted for volatility, drawdown and persistence over time.
No hidden magic
The scoring is a documented weighted average of documented metric curves. You can always trace why a wallet scores what it scores.
Methodology
How the pipeline works
Every day, the full pipeline re-runs from scratch on fresh on-chain data. Nothing is cached from yesterday’s opinions.
Ingest
We sync the full Polymarket market catalog and pull complete trade histories for candidate wallets from the public APIs.
Filter
Exclusion filters remove bots, HFT and market makers: unrealistic trade counts, sustained high frequency, and PnL profiles outside the copyable range.
Measure
For each surviving wallet we compute EHR (30/90/180-day), Sharpe, Sortino and Calmar analogs, max drawdown, maker volume, category concentration and persistence.
Score
Each metric maps to 0-100 through transparent linear curves, and the final score is their weighted average — the single number you see in the ranking.